Buy now or wait for a price drop? A simple rule

Waiting for a sale saves money only when the wait is free. If you have no deadline, wait. If the thing solves a problem every day, buy it.

That is the whole rule. The rest of this page is how to apply it fast.

The cost of waiting

Waiting is not always free. Put a number on it.

Example with round numbers: a $100 vacuum may drop to $80 in a sale in six weeks. You save $20. But if your old vacuum is broken, you may pay for a broom, a rug cleaner, or just live with a dirty floor. If that costs you $5 a week, six weeks is $30. You lost $10 by waiting.

Ruling: if waiting costs more per week than the saving divided by the weeks, buy now.

When waiting works

Wait when all of these are true:

• You can live without the item for a month or more.
• The item is the kind that is often marked down, like coats at the end of winter or fans at the end of summer.
• You know what you want, so a sale is not a trick to make you pick something else.

Seasonal buys are the safest to delay. Heavy coats, fans, heaters and garden gear usually cost less when the season is ending, in general. Buying them in season costs more.

When waiting is a trap

• The price may rise. Some items cost more when stock runs low or a new model arrives.
• The old model vanishes. You wait for a drop and the one you wanted sells out.
• The sale is not real. A sale tag can sit next to a price that was never lower. Check the price history on a tracking site, or look at the same item in two stores.
• You buy more than you need. A deal on something you did not plan for is not a saving.

Read how to shop a sale without overspending for the checks that catch fake discounts.

A simple way to track a price

1. Write the item, the store and today's price in a note on your phone.
2. Check once a week for four weeks.
3. If the price falls, buy. If it stays flat, buy at week four.

The note does two jobs. It shows whether waiting works for that item. It also cools off impulse wants. If you forget the item in two weeks, you did not need it.

Used or open box as a middle path

If you cannot wait but cannot pay full price, look at secondhand or open box. Our guide on when secondhand beats new covers what is safe to buy this way.

Common mistakes

• Waiting for the "best" price and missing a good one.
• Treating a 10 percent drop as a big deal on a $20 item. That is $2.
• Buying a bigger item only because it is on sale.
• Skipping the return policy check.